Lead generic polls identifying map GOP?

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Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing? HPFB.init();
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House Race Projectionsdem 193toss up 30gop 212 77%Probability of Gop takeover

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Posted: 10-31-10 12:32 PM

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Read More:Election Day, Elections 2010, Generic Ballot, Polling, Pollster Analysis, Politics News Get Politics AlertsEmailComments13

WASHINGTON - Readers of The Washington Post woke this morning to the headline "GOP HOLDS EDGE AT FINISH" splashed across its front page. An above-the-fold graphic, under the heading "Republicans keep a slight advantage," illustrated results from the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showing likely voters favoring the Republican candidate in their Congressional district over the Democrat by a four point margin (49% to 45%).

No one should quarrel with the lead of the Post story (which has a different online headline): Based on all available evidence, Republicans do "appear poised to capture control of the House and are likely to make substantial gains in the Senate," a point also stressed in the ABC News analysis of the same poll. What Post readers may miss, however, is the subtext of two important words in the headlines: "edge" and "slight."

A four-point Republican margin on what is known among pollsters as the "generic" House ballot, is closer than what most other recent national polls have been showing (at least as of this writing), particularly those from Gallup, Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and others showing outsized Republican leads. Another new CNN poll released just just this morning shows Republicans leading by seven (52% to 45%). Of course, the Post/ABC poll is just one estimate with a margin of error -- random change alone might have produced a wider or narrower Republican lead had they conducted multiple polls using the same methods.

But that said, a four-point Republican margin would suggest the Republicans winning control of the House but by narrower margins than the 50+ seat gains widely predicted in recent days. The statistical model of Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz, presented at a recent conference of political scientists, shows that the difference between a tie on the generic congressional ballot and a ten-point Republican lead translates into a potential spread of Republican gains of between 40 and 57 seats (ignoring the margin of error for the model). If Republicans lead by 5 point in the generic ballot, the Abramowitz model predicts a 49-seat Republican gain. They need to pick up a net 39 seats to win majority control.

We will have many more new national generic ballot numbers to ponder over the next 24 to 48 hours, but for now, consider the following table, which shows the most recent results reported by 13 different pollsters over the last few weeks. They show everything from a 3-point Democratic advantage (Newsweek) to a 14-point Republican landslide (Gallup's 40% turnout scenario), and every one of these surveys is based on a sample of "likely voters." Our most recent generic House ballot trend estimate, based on all public polls, puts the Republican advantage at just under 7 points (49.9% to 42.7%):

Those ready to question the entire polling enterprise have pointed, with good reason, to a recent Pew Research Center report showing that polls that limit their calling to Americans with landline phones may show a modest bias favoring Republicans. However, as indicated in the table, most national pollsters are now sampling and calling both cell and landline phones, including those producing the most widely varying results (Newsweek and Gallup). But what's most striking about the most recent generic House ballot results is a huge variability that seems unrelated to whether the pollster is interviewing over cell phones to reach those with only landline service. The differences in the likely voter "models" are much more important in determining the size of the Republican lead (or deficit).

Of course, the polls in the bottom half of the chart are dated, including those from Gallup and the Pew Research Center which are based on data that is roughly a week to two weeks old. As noted here previously, the Gallup and Pew data show evidence of a coming-down-to-earth of the enormous partisan gap in attention paid to the campaign that is contributing to some of the outsized Republican margins. So the variation among the final round of national polls may be narrower.

Story continues below Advertisement

Or it may not. It's worth remembering that national polls at the close of the 2006 campaign also showed considerable variation that did not completely converge at the end. The following table shows how the final week polls compared to the final official national House vote:

The final polls from Gallup, ABC/Post and the Pew Research Center had the final Democratic margin about right (although all three showed much bigger Democratic leads a few weeks earlier). However, the final polls from Newsweek, Time and CNN overstated the Democratic margin considerably.

What will the final round of national polls show this time? Stay tuned to HuffPost Pollster -- we will be back with more updates as pollsters release their final national polls.

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Post to Facebook.Post to Blogger.Post to Twitter.Post to WordPress.Post to TypePad.Post to Tumblr.Post to Yahoo! View All Recency  |  Popularity forpeace   1 minute ago (1:05 PM) 1094 Fans Happy Ha||0ween!!!!!!!!!!

This is even w0rse than a Ha||0ween H0rr0r List!

This is what you get, if you stay home and not VOTE:

- Sarah Palin (not running, but supports all these cr@zy ones)
- Michelle Buckman
- Sharron Angle
- Christine O'Donnell
- Meg Whitman
- Carly Fiorina
- Linda McMahon
- Rand Paul
- Joe Miller
- Carl Paladino
- Ken Buck
- Jan Brewer
- Maco Rubio
- Rick Perry
- Tom Tancredo
- Joe Barton
- Steve King
- Joe Wilson
- Mark kirk
- Ron Johnson
- Sean Duffy
- Pat Toomey
- Rick Scott
- Rich Iott
- Marco Rubio
- Richard Burr
- Jeff Perry
- John Raese
- Tom Tancredo
- Eric Deaton
- Bill Brady
- Ilario Pantano

............ and many more

V O T E ........... say NO to Teapublicans aka Republicans. forpeace: Happy Ha||0ween!!!!!!!!!! This is even w0rse than a Ha||0ween H0rr0r http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/forpeace/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678790.html Permalink  | Share it garystartswithg   2 minutes ago (1:04 PM) 262 Fans there never was a lead -- it was made up by the corporate media. seriously folks, stop being so deer in the headlights with everything corporate media throws at you. its called thinking. try it sometime. garystartswithg: there never was a lead -- it was made up http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/garystartswithg/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678737.html Permalink  | Share it HUFFPOST PUNDIT calindi   2 minutes ago (1:04 PM) 400 Fans Well, NOW would certainly be a good time to get those polls turned around. calindi: Well, NOW would certainly be a good time to get http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/calindi/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678679.html Permalink  | Share it Patriot86   15 minutes ago (12:51 PM) 353 Fans Follow Yes the polls are narrowing and it is anyone's game I believe. Patriot86: Yes the polls are narrowing and it is anyone's game http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Patriot86/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65677334.html Permalink  | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER R Car   1 minute ago (1:05 PM) 114 Fans Dems disregard the polls and predictions, our corporate MSM, paid pundits and the GOP are trying very hard to suppress the dems vote especially, minorities. If conservatives are to win, the voters must turn out in record numbers.

Cooking the booking in polling is nothing new after all, these polls are sanctioned by corporations to fit the narrative they want. Plus, these poll are omitting, cell phone users, and omitting and/or low balling, what they call sub groups, which are minorities. Go vote dems!

http://the­hill.com/h­omenews/ca­mpaign/604­43-nationa­l-polling-­firm-battl­ing-back-a­mid-contro­versy

http://www­.mcclatchy­dc.com/201­0/10/18/10­2226/bewar­e-of-polls­-that-excl­ude-cell.h­tml

http://ndn­­.org/blog­/­2010/10/­ga­llups-l­ike­ly-vot­er-m­odel-­has-f­atal­-flaw-­ndn­-challe­ng­es-gallu­p­-revise-o­­r-drop-its­­-2010

http://www­.psbresear­ch.com/wha­t_we_do/co­rporate.ht­ml

"Weeks prior to the 1948 election, many leading editorial writers and political columnists relied on early Gallup Polls, which predicted Thomas E. Dewey's win over incumbent Harry S. Truman. Truman's strategy was to bypass the press by taking his case to the people in a "whistlestop" campaign. An issue of the early edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune was handed to Truman after the election. The headline declared "Dewey Defeats Truman." Truman upset Dewey despite having the support of only 15 percent of the nation's daily papers." R_Car: Dems disregard the polls and predictions, our corporate MSM, paid http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/R_Car/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678799.html Permalink  | Share it tinman1967   20 minutes ago (12:46 PM) 25 Fans What may hurt the GOP is the planned visitation of various polling places around the country by Philadelphia's finest New Black Panthers. The Panthers plan to cover over 50 of the largest cities in the US and "show" voters how to vote "properly." tinman1967: What may hurt the GOP is the planned visitation of http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/tinman1967/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65676833.html Permalink  | Share it HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR k6007   11 minutes ago (12:55 PM) 657 Fans wow, those three guys are going to cover a lot of ground. k6007: wow, those three guys are going to cover a lot http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/k6007/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65677775.html Permalink  | Share it HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR cuardai   5 minutes ago (1:01 PM) 111 Fans My thoughts exactly! Fanned by the way. cuardai: My thoughts exactly! Fanned by the way. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/cuardai/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678423.html Permalink  | Share it mamala4   3 minutes ago (1:03 PM) 570 Fans The ignorance of the right is stunning. mamala4: The ignorance of the right is stunning. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/mamala4/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678607.html Permalink  | Share it There are More Comments on this Thread. Click Here To See them All Kevin from Cali   0 minute ago (1:06 PM) 16 Fans Fox news isn't giving you the correct FACTS Kevin_from_Cali: Fox news isn't giving you the correct FACTS http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Kevin_from_Cali/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678923.html Permalink  | Share it tinman1967   0 minute ago (1:06 PM) 25 Fans They've recruited help from ACORN. tinman1967: They've recruited help from ACORN. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/tinman1967/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678933.html Permalink  | Share it dollyllama10   1 minute ago (1:05 PM) 211 Fans tinman rings hollow. dollyllama10: tinman rings hollow. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/dollyllama10/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65678780.html Permalink  | Share it     New comments on this entry — Click to refreshLoading comments… TOP RACE CHARTSSENATE GOVERNORHOUSEAlaska: Miller (R) vs McAdams (D) vs Murkowski (I)California: Fiorina (R) vs Boxer (D)Colorado: Buck (R) vs Bennet (D)Delaware: O'Donnell (R) vs Coons (D)Florida: Rubio (R) vs Meek (D) vs Crist (I)Illinois: Kirk (R) vs Giannoulias (D)Missouri: Blunt (R) vs Carnahan (D)Nevada: Angle (R) vs Reid (D)New Hampshire: Ayotte (R) vs Hodes (D)Ohio: Portman (R) vs Fisher (D)Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) vs Sestak (D)Washington: Rossi (R) vs Murray (D)West Virginia: Raese (R) vs Manchin (D)Wisconsin: Johnson (R) vs Feingold (D)----------------Alabama: Shelby (R) vs Barnes (D)Arkansas: Boozman (R) vs Lincoln (D)Arizona: McCain (R) vs Glassman (D)Connecticut: McMahon (R) vs Blumenthal (D)Georgia: Isakson (R) vs Thurmond (D)Hawaii: Cavasso (R) vs Inouye (D)Iowa: Grassley (R) vs Conlin (D)Idaho: Crapo (R) vs Sullivan (D)Indiana: Coats (R) vs Ellsworth (D)Kansas: Moran (R) vs Johnston (D)Kentucky: Paul (R) vs Conway (D)Louisiana: Vitter (R) vs Melancon (D)Maryland: Wargotz (R) vs Mikulski (D)North Carolina: Burr (R) vs Marshall (D)North Dakota: Hoeven (R) vs Potter (D)New York B: DioGuardi (R) vs Gillibrand (D)New York A: Townsend (R) vs Schumer (D)Oklahoma: Coburn (R) vs Rogers (D)Oregon: Huffman (R) vs Wyden (D)South Carolina: DeMint (R) vs Greene (D)Utah: Lee (R) vs Granato (D)Vermont: Britton (R) vs Leahy (D)
Show Other RacesCalifornia: Whitman (R) vs Brown (D)Colorado: Maes (R) vs Hickenlooper (D) vs Tancredo (I)Florida: Scott (R) vs Sink (D)Maryland: Ehrlich (R) vs O'Malley (D)Massachusetts: Baker (R) vs Patrick (D) vs Cahill (I)Minnesota: Emmer (R) vs Dayton (D) vs Horner (I)New Mexico: Martinez (R) vs Denish (D)Ohio: Kasich (R) vs Strickland (D)Oregon: Dudley (R) vs Kitzhaber (D)Pennsylvania: Corbett (R) vs Onorato (D)Rhode Island: Robitaille (R) vs Caprio (D) vs Chafee (I)Texas: Perry (R) vs White (D)Vermont: Dubie (R) vs Shumlin (D)Wisconsin: Walker (R) vs Barrett (D)----------------Alabama: Bentley (R) vs Sparks (D)Alaska: Parnell (R) vs Berkowitz (D)Arizona: Brewer (R) vs Goddard (D)Arkansas: Keet (R) vs Beebe (D)Connecticut: Foley (R) vs Malloy (D)Georgia: Deal (R) vs Barnes (D)Hawaii: Aiona (R) vs Abercrombie (D)Idaho: Otter (R) vs Allred (D)Illinois: Brady (R) vs Quinn (D)Iowa: Branstad (R) vs Culver (D)Kansas: Brownback (R) vs Holland (D)Maine: LePage (R) vs Mitchell (D) vs Cutler (I)Michigan: Snyder (R) vs Bernero (D)Nebraska: Heineman (R) vs Meister (D)Nevada: Sandoval (R) vs Reid (D)New Hampshire: Stephen (R) vs Lynch (D)New York: Paladino (R) vs Cuomo (D)Oklahoma: Fallin (R) vs Askins (D)South Carolina: Haley (R) vs Sheheen (D)South Dakota: Daugaard (R) vs Heidepriem (D)Tennessee: Haslam (R) vs McWherter (D)Utah: Herbert (R) vs Corroon (D)Wyoming: Mead (R) vs Peterson (D)
Show Other RacesAll House ChartsNational House BallotPOLLS AND CHARTSlatest poll updates1 of 4Nzc2NjIwLDc3NjYxNCw3NzY2MTAsNzc2NTY4LDc3NjU1NSw3NzY1NTMsNzc2NTUwLDc3NjU0OSw3NzY1NDYsNzc2NTQ1LDc3NjU0NCw3NzY1NDIsNzc2NTM4LDc3NjUzNyw3NzY1MzYsNzc2NTM0LDc3NjUzMiw3NzY1MzAsNzc2NDgwLDc3NjQ3OA%3D%3DNzc2NDc2LDc3NjQ2Niw3NzY0NjQsNzc2NDYxLDc3NjQ1NSw3NzY0NTMsNzc2NDM5LDc3NjQzNyw3NzY0MDYsNzc2NDAzLDc3NjMzMiw3NzYzMjYsNzc2MzEzLDc3NjIyNiw3NzYyMTgsNzc2MTkzLDc3NjE4Myw3NzYxODIsNzc2MTU0LDc3NjE0Mg%3D%3DNzc2MTI4LDc3NjExNyw3NzYxMDQsNzc2MDI2LDc3NTk4OSw3NzU5ODEsNzc1OTUzLDc3NTkyOSw3NzU5MjcsNzc1OTIyLDc3NTkwOSw3NzU5MDQsNzc1OTAzLDc3NTg5MSw3NzU4OTQsNzc1ODg5LDc3NTg3OSw3NzU4ODgsNzc1ODYzLDc3NTg4Ng%3D%3DNzc1ODg1LDc3NTg4NCw3NzU4NTAsNzc1ODU0LDc3NTgzMyw3NzU4MjEsNzc1ODEyLDc3NTY2NSw3NzU2NjEsNzc1NjMxLDc3NTYyMSw3NzU1NTksNzc1NTMzLDc3NTUzOSw3NzU0ODcsNzc1NDcyLDc3NTM4Myw3NzUzNjAsNzc1MzYzLDc3NTM1MA%3D%3D NY-Sen: 56% Gillibrand (D), 36% DioGuardi (R) (SurveyISA 1-/25-28)US-Generic Ballot: 52% Republican , 42% Democrat (CNN 10/27-30)OH-Gov: 49% Kasich (R), 47% Strickland (D) (Columbia Dispatch 10/20-29)FL-Gov: 44% Scott (R), 39% Sink (D) (USFP 10/27)US-Generic Ballot: 49% Republican, 45% Democrat (ABC/Post 10/25-28)PA-Sen: 45% Toomey (R), 43% Sestak (D) (Muhlenberg 10/27-30)OH-Gov: 49% Kasich (R), 48% Strickland (D) (PPP 10/28-30)NV-Gov: 54% Sandoval (R), 38% Reid (D) (LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/25-27)AR-Gov: 60% Beebe (R), 38% Keet (D) (Rasmussen 10/28)OH-Sen: 57% Portman (R), 33% Fisher (D) (Rasmussen 10/26)NH-Sen: 56% Ayotte (R), 41% Hodes (D) (Rasmussen 10/27)FL-Sen: 50% Rubio (R), 30% Crist (I), 16% Meek (D) (Rasmussen 10/27)IL-Sen: 47% Giannoulias (D), 44% Kirk (R) (YouGov 10/25-30)NV-Sen: 49% Angle (D), 47% Reid (R) (YouGov 10/25-30)WA-Sen: 50% Murray (D), 47% Rossi (R) (YouGov 10/25-30)WI-Sen: 52% Johnson (R), 46% Feingold (D) (YouGov 10/25-30)CT-Gov: 49% Foley (R), 47% Malloy (D) (PPP 10/27-29)MN-Gov: 43% Dayton (D), 40% Emmer (R), 15% Horner (I) (PPP 10/27-29)CT-Gov: 48% Malloy (D), 44% Foley (R) (YouGov 10/25-28)MO-Sen: 54% Blunt (R), 42% Carnahan (D) (YouGov 10/25-28) national trend charts2010:
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ObamaPalinRomneyHuckabeeindex to all polls and chartsNational By State AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY CONTRIBUTORS RECENT POSTSMark BlumenthalEmily Swanson Brendan NyhanBrian SchaffnerCharles FranklinDavid C. WilsonDavid MooreKristen SoltisMargie OmeroMichael McDonaldSteve Lombardo Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing?Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House ModelO'Donnell Closes Gap, or Coons up Big? The Dirt in Poll DetailsA Late Democratic Early Voting Surge in NevadaWomen's Enthusiasm Rebounds, But They're Still Not Voting for the GrizzliesWashington Polls Narrow, Keep GOP Senate Hopes AliveSenate Polls Show West Virginia Leaning Blue, Nevada Tipping RedIs the Religious Right Taking Over the Tea Party?Boxer, Brown Lead In New California PollsIs An 'Attentiveness Gap' Blowing Up Pollster's Likely Voter Models?The Democratic Surge Is Just a FantasyPolls Show Republicans Poised To Take State HousesNew PPP Polls Favor Joe Manchin, Show Michael Bennet ClosingColorado Race Gets Closer, Improving Dems' Odds In SenateABOUT POLLSTERFAQ
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