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Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing? HPFB.init();
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Get Politics AlertsEmailComments65 WASHINGTON - Readers of The Washington Post woke this morning to the headline "GOP HOLDS EDGE AT FINISH" splashed across its front page. An above-the-fold graphic, under the heading "Republicans keep a slight advantage," illustrated results from the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showing likely voters favoring the Republican candidate in their Congressional district over the Democrat by a four point margin (49% to 45%).
No one should quarrel with the lead of the Post story (which has a different online headline): Based on all available evidence, Republicans do "appear poised to capture control of the House and are likely to make substantial gains in the Senate," a point also stressed in the ABC News analysis of the same poll. What Post readers may miss, however, is the subtext of two important words in the headlines: "edge" and "slight."
A four-point Republican margin on what is known among pollsters as the "generic" House ballot, is closer than what most other recent national polls have been showing (at least as of this writing), particularly those from Gallup, Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and others showing outsized Republican leads. Another new CNN poll released just just this morning shows Republicans leading by seven (52% to 45%). Of course, the Post/ABC poll is just one estimate with a margin of error -- random change alone might have produced a wider or narrower Republican lead had they conducted multiple polls using the same methods.
But that said, a four-point Republican margin would suggest the Republicans winning control of the House but by narrower margins than the 50+ seat gains widely predicted in recent days. The statistical model of Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz, presented at a recent conference of political scientists, shows that the difference between a tie on the generic congressional ballot and a ten-point Republican lead translates into a potential spread of Republican gains of between 40 and 57 seats (ignoring the margin of error for the model). If Republicans lead by 5 point in the generic ballot, the Abramowitz model predicts a 49-seat Republican gain. They need to pick up a net 39 seats to win majority control.
We will have many more new national generic ballot numbers to ponder over the next 24 to 48 hours, but for now, consider the following table, which shows the most recent results reported by 13 different pollsters over the last few weeks. They show everything from a 3-point Democratic advantage (Newsweek) to a 14-point Republican landslide (Gallup's 40% turnout scenario), and every one of these surveys is based on a sample of "likely voters." Our most recent generic House ballot trend estimate, based on all public polls, puts the Republican advantage at just under 7 points (49.9% to 42.7%):
Those ready to question the entire polling enterprise have pointed, with good reason, to a recent Pew Research Center report showing that polls that limit their calling to Americans with landline phones may show a modest bias favoring Republicans. However, as indicated in the table, most national pollsters are now sampling and calling both cell and landline phones, including those producing the most widely varying results (Newsweek and Gallup). But what's most striking about the most recent generic House ballot results is a huge variability that seems unrelated to whether the pollster is interviewing over cell phones to reach those with only landline service. The differences in the likely voter "models" are much more important in determining the size of the Republican lead (or deficit).
Of course, the polls in the bottom half of the chart are dated, including those from Gallup and the Pew Research Center which are based on data that is roughly a week to two weeks old. As noted here previously, the Gallup and Pew data show evidence of a coming-down-to-earth of the enormous partisan gap in attention paid to the campaign that is contributing to some of the outsized Republican margins. So the variation among the final round of national polls may be narrower.
Story continues below AdvertisementOr it may not. It's worth remembering that national polls at the close of the 2006 campaign also showed considerable variation that did not completely converge at the end. The following table shows how the final week polls compared to the final official national House vote:
The final polls from Gallup, ABC/Post and the Pew Research Center had the final Democratic margin about right (although all three showed much bigger Democratic leads a few weeks earlier). However, the final polls from Newsweek, Time and CNN overstated the Democratic margin considerably.
What will the final round of national polls show this time? Stay tuned to HuffPost Pollster -- we will be back with more updates as pollsters release their final national polls.
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Post to Facebook.Post to Blogger.Post to Twitter.Post to WordPress.Post to TypePad.Post to Tumblr.Post to Yahoo! View All Favorites Recency | Popularity Page: 1 2 Next › Last » (2 total) luckyone77 0 minute ago (1:21 PM) 86 Fans Sign the petition at http://www.freespeechforpeople.org/ for a constitutional amendment to overturn the Citizens United ruling. luckyone77: Sign the petition at http://www.freespeechforpeople.org/ for a constitutional amendment to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/luckyone77/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680285.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER thepheonix 0 minute ago (1:21 PM) 271 Fans Follow If the polls are showing numbers in the +9 to +13 range. The Dems better be worried.+5 is equivalent to 50 seats. An increase of +1 is equivalent to a 5 to 6 seat loss. thepheonix: If the polls are showing numbers in the +9 to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/thepheonix/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680279.html Permalink | Share it
HUFFPOST SUPER USER jcarterla 0 minute ago (1:20 PM) 161 Fans Follow I find polls to be useless. They only seem to sway the wishy washy people in the middle into voting for whoever is ahead in the polls. It is similar to being judged by 12 people who aren't smart enough to get out of jury duty. jcarterla: I find polls to be useless. They only seem to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/jcarterla/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680230.html Permalink | Share it kimbanyc 1 minute ago (1:19 PM) 741 Fans Why is the GOBP so determined to end social security? Why are they sodetermined to make sure that small buisnesses can't fight their way
out of the Bush depression and start to help bring back jobs? Why are
they so determined to protect obscene profits for the Insurance, Oil,
Coal, Wall Street Billionaires and keep the vast majority of Americans
underpaid and scared and out of work. Why do they keep pushing for a
war with Iran? Why do they h8 latinos and Muslims and workers and
women and anyone who doesn't think and look like them. why have they
been working so hard to destroy the constitution and blame all the bad
they have done on The President? I have a lot more questions, Don't
you?
Vote out all Republican'ts, TeaBaggers and their pet blue lap dogs. kimbanyc: Why is the GOBP so determined to end social security? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kimbanyc/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680136.html Permalink | Share it luckyone77 2 minutes ago (1:19 PM) 86 Fans A lot of corporate cash went into devising those polls so they must be accurate luckyone77: A lot of corporate cash went into devising those polls http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/luckyone77/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680087.html Permalink | Share it
Raccoon1 1 minute ago (1:20 PM) 461 Fans Would they lie to us just to make a buck? Raccoon1: Would they lie to us just to make a buck? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Raccoon1/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680203.html Permalink | Share it YouDontWantMeHere 2 minutes ago (1:18 PM) 23 Fans here's whats i wanna know: how can ANYONE claim ta have a mandate whens less then 50% of the peoples vote? YouDontWantMeHere: here's whats i wanna know: how can ANYONE claim ta http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/YouDontWantMeHere/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680051.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER Dixie Dew 4 minutes ago (1:16 PM) 28 Fans During early voting two years ago the minority population was lined up every day two to three hundred folks deep at every polling station in town. I saw them at the Walmart parking lots, handing out flyers and handbills to get out and vote. This year I have seen nothing. nowhere. Dixie_Dew: During early voting two years ago the minority population was http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Dixie_Dew/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679863.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST PUNDIT MJHammonds 3 minutes ago (1:18 PM) 986 Fans Your point? MJHammonds: Your point? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/MJHammonds/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680011.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER R Car 1 minute ago (1:19 PM) 114 Fans Humm, cell phones, facebook, text messaging, email, twitter and word of mouth! R_Car: Humm, cell phones, facebook, text messaging, email, twitter and word http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/R_Car/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680124.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER delawarre 4 minutes ago (1:16 PM) 10 Fans Follow I refuse to believe that the American electorate would be so foolish as to put the Republicans back in power. I am hopeful that the Dems will retain both the Senate and the House. Guess we'll find out this coming Tuesday! delawarre: I refuse to believe that the American electorate would be http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/delawarre/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679851.html Permalink | Share it WaveRhydr 5 minutes ago (1:15 PM) 589 Fans I didnt expect repubs to give a dayum what we Dems cared about or wanted. But it burns me up to hear Dems in office dismiss us as "the professional" or "Crazy libs". I DO think we need a house cleaning on the old out of touch fossils in DC on both sides. Not that I want to swap a Dem for a repub, of course. WaveRhydr: I didnt expect repubs to give a dayum what we http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/WaveRhydr/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679783.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER R Car 0 minute ago (1:20 PM) 114 Fans I agree! R_Car: I agree! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/R_Car/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680245.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER R Car 7 minutes ago (1:14 PM) 114 Fans Get out and vote Dems! R_Car: Get out and vote Dems! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/R_Car/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679623.html Permalink | Share it Scentedflower 7 minutes ago (1:13 PM) 842 Fans Conscience is an aptitude, faculty, intuition, or judgment of the intellect that distinguishes right from wrong. Moral evaluations
If a voter casts a ballot with consciousness, the RepubTpee big oTs lshould loose big. Scentedflower: Conscience is an aptitude, faculty, intuition, or judgment of the http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Scentedflower/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679609.html Permalink | Share it whatchamean 8 minutes ago (1:12 PM) 41 Fans Will it be a wake up call for the dems? Not if they have the attitude the president seemed to reflect on the Daily Show this week. BO did not seem to get it at all. whatchamean: Will it be a wake up call for the dems? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/whatchamean/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679506.html Permalink | Share it
HUFFPOST SUPER USER Jeff Hannan 9 minutes ago (1:12 PM) 194 Fans Perhaps people are finally waking up the the fact that the candidates the TPers have put forward are a bunch of crazies and the mainstream GOP candidates are working for party and class over country. I surely don't mind a "throw the bums out" attitude, but you got to give me better than the current slate of replacements. You do not replace bad with worse. You don't replace a burnt out light bulb with one that is broken and ready to zap anyone who walks by, for example. People like Angle, O'Donnell, (Rand) Paul, Palodino, Miller, et al aren't fit to run a cub scout troop, much less a country such as ours. Jeff_Hannan: Perhaps people are finally waking up the the fact that http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jeff_Hannan/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679466.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR mixnmatch 8 minutes ago (1:12 PM) 3020 Fans Follow X2 mixnmatch: X2 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/mixnmatch/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679515.html Permalink | Share it Topo19 0 minute ago (1:20 PM) 353 Fans F&F'd. Topo19: F&F'd. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Topo19/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65680225.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USER trying this again 9 minutes ago (1:11 PM) 77 Fans Maybe there was never a lead to begin with and all these polls are nothing but a bunch of twaddle to manipulate the American voters. trying_this_again: Maybe there was never a lead to begin with and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/trying_this_again/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679430.html Permalink | Share it HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR mixnmatch 10 minutes ago (1:10 PM) 3020 Fans Follow It will be a pleasure to watch the pundits Tuesday night try to figure out what happened. mixnmatch: It will be a pleasure to watch the pundits Tuesday http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/mixnmatch/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602_65679290.html Permalink | Share it Page: 1 2 Next › Last » (2 total) New comments on this entry — Click to refresh
Loading comments… TOP RACE CHARTSSENATE GOVERNORHOUSEAlaska: Miller (R) vs McAdams (D) vs Murkowski (I)California: Fiorina (R) vs Boxer (D)Colorado: Buck (R) vs Bennet (D)Delaware: O'Donnell (R) vs Coons (D)Florida: Rubio (R) vs Meek (D) vs Crist (I)Illinois: Kirk (R) vs Giannoulias (D)Missouri: Blunt (R) vs Carnahan (D)Nevada: Angle (R) vs Reid (D)New Hampshire: Ayotte (R) vs Hodes (D)Ohio: Portman (R) vs Fisher (D)Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) vs Sestak (D)Washington: Rossi (R) vs Murray (D)West Virginia: Raese (R) vs Manchin (D)Wisconsin: Johnson (R) vs Feingold (D)----------------Alabama: Shelby (R) vs Barnes (D)Arkansas: Boozman (R) vs Lincoln (D)Arizona: McCain (R) vs Glassman (D)Connecticut: McMahon (R) vs Blumenthal (D)Georgia: Isakson (R) vs Thurmond (D)Hawaii: Cavasso (R) vs Inouye (D)Iowa: Grassley (R) vs Conlin (D)Idaho: Crapo (R) vs Sullivan (D)Indiana: Coats (R) vs Ellsworth (D)Kansas: Moran (R) vs Johnston (D)Kentucky: Paul (R) vs Conway (D)Louisiana: Vitter (R) vs Melancon (D)Maryland: Wargotz (R) vs Mikulski (D)North Carolina: Burr (R) vs Marshall (D)North Dakota: Hoeven (R) vs Potter (D)New York B: DioGuardi (R) vs Gillibrand (D)New York A: Townsend (R) vs Schumer (D)Oklahoma: Coburn (R) vs Rogers (D)Oregon: Huffman (R) vs Wyden (D)South Carolina: DeMint (R) vs Greene (D)Utah: Lee (R) vs Granato (D)Vermont: Britton (R) vs Leahy (D)Show Other RacesCalifornia: Whitman (R) vs Brown (D)Colorado: Maes (R) vs Hickenlooper (D) vs Tancredo (I)Florida: Scott (R) vs Sink (D)Maryland: Ehrlich (R) vs O'Malley (D)Massachusetts: Baker (R) vs Patrick (D) vs Cahill (I)Minnesota: Emmer (R) vs Dayton (D) vs Horner (I)New Mexico: Martinez (R) vs Denish (D)Ohio: Kasich (R) vs Strickland (D)Oregon: Dudley (R) vs Kitzhaber (D)Pennsylvania: Corbett (R) vs Onorato (D)Rhode Island: Robitaille (R) vs Caprio (D) vs Chafee (I)Texas: Perry (R) vs White (D)Vermont: Dubie (R) vs Shumlin (D)Wisconsin: Walker (R) vs Barrett (D)----------------Alabama: Bentley (R) vs Sparks (D)Alaska: Parnell (R) vs Berkowitz (D)Arizona: Brewer (R) vs Goddard (D)Arkansas: Keet (R) vs Beebe (D)Connecticut: Foley (R) vs Malloy (D)Georgia: Deal (R) vs Barnes (D)Hawaii: Aiona (R) vs Abercrombie (D)Idaho: Otter (R) vs Allred (D)Illinois: Brady (R) vs Quinn (D)Iowa: Branstad (R) vs Culver (D)Kansas: Brownback (R) vs Holland (D)Maine: LePage (R) vs Mitchell (D) vs Cutler (I)Michigan: Snyder (R) vs Bernero (D)Nebraska: Heineman (R) vs Meister (D)Nevada: Sandoval (R) vs Reid (D)New Hampshire: Stephen (R) vs Lynch (D)New York: Paladino (R) vs Cuomo (D)Oklahoma: Fallin (R) vs Askins (D)South Carolina: Haley (R) vs Sheheen (D)South Dakota: Daugaard (R) vs Heidepriem (D)Tennessee: Haslam (R) vs McWherter (D)Utah: Herbert (R) vs Corroon (D)Wyoming: Mead (R) vs Peterson (D)
Show Other RacesAll House ChartsNational House BallotPOLLS AND CHARTSlatest poll updates1 of 4Nzc2NjIwLDc3NjYxNCw3NzY2MTAsNzc2NTY4LDc3NjU1NSw3NzY1NTMsNzc2NTUwLDc3NjU0OSw3NzY1NDYsNzc2NTQ1LDc3NjU0NCw3NzY1NDIsNzc2NTM4LDc3NjUzNyw3NzY1MzYsNzc2NTM0LDc3NjUzMiw3NzY1MzAsNzc2NDgwLDc3NjQ3OA%3D%3DNzc2NDc2LDc3NjQ2Niw3NzY0NjQsNzc2NDYxLDc3NjQ1NSw3NzY0NTMsNzc2NDM5LDc3NjQzNyw3NzY0MDYsNzc2NDAzLDc3NjMzMiw3NzYzMjYsNzc2MzEzLDc3NjIyNiw3NzYyMTgsNzc2MTkzLDc3NjE4Myw3NzYxODIsNzc2MTU0LDc3NjE0Mg%3D%3DNzc2MTI4LDc3NjExNyw3NzYxMDQsNzc2MDI2LDc3NTk4OSw3NzU5ODEsNzc1OTUzLDc3NTkyOSw3NzU5MjcsNzc1OTIyLDc3NTkwOSw3NzU5MDQsNzc1OTAzLDc3NTg5MSw3NzU4OTQsNzc1ODg5LDc3NTg3OSw3NzU4ODgsNzc1ODYzLDc3NTg4Ng%3D%3DNzc1ODg1LDc3NTg4NCw3NzU4NTAsNzc1ODU0LDc3NTgzMyw3NzU4MjEsNzc1ODEyLDc3NTY2NSw3NzU2NjEsNzc1NjMxLDc3NTYyMSw3NzU1NTksNzc1NTMzLDc3NTUzOSw3NzU0ODcsNzc1NDcyLDc3NTM4Myw3NzUzNjAsNzc1MzYzLDc3NTM1MA%3D%3D NY-Sen: 56% Gillibrand (D), 36% DioGuardi (R) (SurveyISA 1-/25-28)US-Generic Ballot: 52% Republican , 42% Democrat (CNN 10/27-30)OH-Gov: 49% Kasich (R), 47% Strickland (D) (Columbia Dispatch 10/20-29)FL-Gov: 44% Scott (R), 39% Sink (D) (USFP 10/27)US-Generic Ballot: 49% Republican, 45% Democrat (ABC/Post 10/25-28)PA-Sen: 45% Toomey (R), 43% Sestak (D) (Muhlenberg 10/27-30)OH-Gov: 49% Kasich (R), 48% Strickland (D) (PPP 10/28-30)NV-Gov: 54% Sandoval (R), 38% Reid (D) (LVRJ/Mason-Dixon 10/25-27)AR-Gov: 60% Beebe (R), 38% Keet (D) (Rasmussen 10/28)OH-Sen: 57% Portman (R), 33% Fisher (D) (Rasmussen 10/26)NH-Sen: 56% Ayotte (R), 41% Hodes (D) (Rasmussen 10/27)FL-Sen: 50% Rubio (R), 30% Crist (I), 16% Meek (D) (Rasmussen 10/27)IL-Sen: 47% Giannoulias (D), 44% Kirk (R) (YouGov 10/25-30)NV-Sen: 49% Angle (D), 47% Reid (R) (YouGov 10/25-30)WA-Sen: 50% Murray (D), 47% Rossi (R) (YouGov 10/25-30)WI-Sen: 52% Johnson (R), 46% Feingold (D) (YouGov 10/25-30)CT-Gov: 49% Foley (R), 47% Malloy (D) (PPP 10/27-29)MN-Gov: 43% Dayton (D), 40% Emmer (R), 15% Horner (I) (PPP 10/27-29)CT-Gov: 48% Malloy (D), 44% Foley (R) (YouGov 10/25-28)MO-Sen: 54% Blunt (R), 42% Carnahan (D) (YouGov 10/25-28) national trend charts2010:
National House BallotObama:
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Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing?
Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model
O'Donnell Closes Gap, or Coons up Big? The Dirt in Poll Details
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Washington Polls Narrow, Keep GOP Senate Hopes Alive
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Is the Religious Right Taking Over the Tea Party?
Boxer, Brown Lead In New California Polls
Is An 'Attentiveness Gap' Blowing Up Pollster's Likely Voter Models?The Democratic Surge Is Just a Fantasy
Polls Show Republicans Poised To Take State Houses
New PPP Polls Favor Joe Manchin, Show Michael Bennet Closing
Colorado Race Gets Closer, Improving Dems' Odds In SenateABOUT POLLSTERFAQAbout us
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